Yesterday’s events in Egypt are more of the same, but in this case really something new. The dissolution of the parliament confirms beyond all doubt the contention made here in February 2011 that the Egyptian military would not cede power to civilians if it could at all help it. The dissolution, combined with a court ruling that Achmed Shafik could stand for the presidency, now reveals the military’s intention for all the world to see. And the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood, including its presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi, has not reacted with outrage and extremist provocation also confirms the analysis provided here yesterday, that the Brotherhood is maneuvering to remain a favored opposition if it cannot actually take power. It is a sober, patient, and prudent organization. As I wrote, the Brotherhood and the military are mature adversaries.
There is a chance that the military has miscalculated with what many Egyptians are justifiably calling a coup. First, it is strange that the military would choose a Thursday to make such portentous announcements. Friday, after all, is the Muslim sabbath, and the day when people in Egypt gather, especially in and around mosques. Second, the parliament might have served as a focus of protest capable of keeping at least some people off the streets. Now their rage is bound to flow, as is a good deal of blood. Egypt’s police, para-military forces, and intelligence thugs are out en masse. On the other hand, parliament has declared that it will defy the order to disband and plans to meet on Tuesday. Unless something happens between now and then, that could spark an iconic confrontation on a scale similar to Tianamen Square and Boris Yeltsin’s jumping on a tank in Moscow.
No one knows where this will all lead. The satyrs of history are on the loose again. Many say that, after Tahrir Square, Egypt will never be the same. And that is true: Egyptians have dared to dream that things could be different, better, and that their own hands and hearts could make a difference. But most likely, in two or three years’ time Egypt will look for all practical purposes very much the same as it did before the so called revolution.
All the more bitter, then, is this turn of events for true Egyptian patriots. All the sadder, too, that the old ways cannot solve Egypt’s mounting problems. The stage is being set for stagnation followed by the next, even greater convulsion.
No comments:
Post a Comment